Urgent Economic Shifts: Impacts on Canadian and US Trucking Markets You Can't Ignore

The trucking industry plays a crucial role in trucking logistics and freight rates, influencing supply chains, employment, and overall trade dynamics. As ATA President Chris Spear noted,

“the trucking industry has faced radical policy shifts affecting regulations, international trade, and technology, underscoring the need for factual data to guide decisions.”

Understanding these trends can help stakeholders navigate the complex landscape ahead, including trucking capacity challenges.

A truck driving on a North American highway with green landscapes and clear blue skies

Canadian Trucking Market Analysis

The Canadian trucking market is currently facing significant challenges. Notably, there has been a marked decline in its spot market. As of August 2025, load postings in Canada plummeted by 14% from July and experienced a staggering 40% decrease compared to the same period last year. This decline indicates ongoing issues with freight demand and market capacity.

One critical statistic to note is the truck-to-load ratio, which has climbed to 4.20 trucks per available load. This reflects a 10% increase from July and a 37% increase year-over-year. Such a rise signifies an oversupply of trucks competing for available loads, intensifying the competition among carriers. Ultimately, this leads to downward pressure on freight rates. With domestic loads shrinking by 13% and cross-border loads also decreasing—8% southbound and 20% for Canada-bound shipments—the overall demand for trucking services continues to be weak (Truck News, 2025).

The decline in load postings is symptomatic of a broader freight recession that has persisted since 2023. This has significantly impacted pricing dynamics in the truckload segment. Smaller fleets and independent operators, who typically rely on the spot market for their revenue, are particularly vulnerable to these fluctuations. Reports indicate that pricing pressures derived from oversupply and reduced freight volumes are leading to a challenging operating environment, further aggravated by rising fuel costs (IBISWorld, 2025).

Industry experts predict that these trends may persist into the near future. The excess capacity and consistently low demand for freight appear unlikely to reverse soon. Analysts from sources like ACT Research have indicated that while there may be sporadic improvements, the market is expected to remain under pressure. This will impact profitability and the ability for carriers to secure favorable freight rates (ACT Research, 2025).

This precarious situation underscores the importance for trucking companies in Canada to adapt to the shifting market dynamics. Exploring opportunities in dedicated freight services or diversifying offerings may help mitigate the impacts of a soft spot market.

Metric	U.S. For-Hire Truck Tonnage	Canadian Spot Market
Change in August 2025	+0.9%	-14% from July
Year Over Year Change	+0.1%	-40%
Truck-to-Load Ratio	N/A	4.20 trucks/load (up 37%)
Date of Data	August 2025	August 2025
Key Source	ATA	Truck News

This table clearly delineates the contrasting performance metrics of the U.S. for-hire trucking market and the Canadian spot market as of August 2025, illustrating the stark differences in their economic conditions.

U.S. Trucking Market Trends as of August 2025

As of August 2025, the U.S. for-hire truck tonnage has exhibited notable upward trends, reflecting resilience amid challenging economic conditions. According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), for-hire truck tonnage increased by 0.9% in August, bringing the tonnage index to 115.3—a remarkable surge that marks its highest level since December 2023 and follows a 1.1% rise in July. Year-to-date, the tonnage is up by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. This incremental growth signals a positive turn in freight volumes during the typically busy late summer, after several months of fluctuations.

Bob Costello, Chief Economist at ATA, commented on these developments, stating, “The good news is that truck freight volumes had a nice end to the summer,” despite acknowledging challenges ahead due to continuing economic pressures such as tariffs that are impacting overall economic fortunes. This cautious optimism sheds light on the adaptive nature of carriers amidst an evolving market landscape.

Moreover, data from sources like Transport Topics underline that the not seasonally adjusted index was slightly higher, landing at 117.7, which indicates an ongoing demand for trucking services. However, Costello also warned that while recent figures showcase some improvement, the freight market remains under considerable strain from sectors such as housing and manufacturing which are either weak or in decline.

The recent rise in tonnage is particularly significant as it comes against a backdrop of increasing economic uncertainty, including rising inflation and fluctuating consumer demand. FTR’s Avery Vise highlighted that, “Capacity, at a minimum, has not grown… Overall utilization is finally higher than the 10-year average, though not by very much—and it is headed higher still.” His insights suggest that while the for-hire market is tightening, it still faces persistent pressures that could affect profitability in the near future.

In summary, the upward trend in U.S. for-hire truck tonnage as of August 2025 reflects a nuanced recovery from previous downturns, but it does so amid a host of economic challenges that warrant a careful and strategic approach by industry stakeholders. Continued observation of these trends will be crucial as they unfold in the latter half of the year and beyond.

Economic trends in North American trucking

Freight Demand Forecasts for the U.S. and Canadian Markets

As we look ahead to the final months of 2025, forecasts for freight demand in both the U.S. and Canadian trucking markets suggest a complex interplay of factors that could shape market dynamics.

U.S. Freight Demand Forecast

According to data from ACT Research, the U.S. trucking industry is currently in a correction phase characterized by gradually tightening capacity but persistently soft freight volumes. Experts predict that in the fourth quarter of 2025, freight volumes are expected to weaken further as the effects of pre-tariff conditions unwind. This trend indicates an impending decline in goods-oriented freight, attributed to tariff-driven cost pressures. The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and consumer demand could contribute to a sluggish recovery, pushing spot rates under pressure into early 2026. While market rebalancing is anticipated, it may unfold slowly and unevenly, with market participants needing to navigate these turbulent seas carefully (ACT Research, 2025).

Further insights from C.H. Robinson highlight that the non-auto manufacturing sector is driving export growth from Mexico, resulting in steady trucking rates into Canada and Mexico. Despite this, forecasts for truckload rates are indicating slight declines in the coming months, particularly from September to October 2025. The overall outlook suggests subdued activity without significant policy changes, hinting at ongoing patience required from shippers (C.H. Robinson, 2025).

Canadian Freight Demand Forecast

The Canadian market faces challenges with continued weak demand for freight services. Reports indicate that throughout the latter part of 2025, reductions in freight volumes are expected, driven by excessive capacity and a shrinking supply of loads. The Cass Freight Index has already registered a mild contraction in volumes, which is expected to carry into the fourth quarter.

According to a Transportation Insight report, the forecast reveals a projected 5% year-over-year decline in U.S. ocean imports, which impacts cross-border freight and capacities, further influencing the Canadian market (Transportation Insight, 2025). This environment of excess capacity could drive significant challenges for smaller trucking companies that depend heavily on the spot market.

Summary of Expert Predictions

Overall, experts across various reports are projecting a continuation of weak freight demand impacting both countries. In the U.S., adjusted capacity and consistent softening of volumes could complicate profit margins for carriers, while in Canada, the combination of low load postings and increased competition may lead to even steeper challenges. Moving forward, stakeholders will need to stay informed on these trends to make strategic decisions in navigating the fluctuating freight landscape.

Summary of Expert Quotes and Insights

In the current trucking landscape, industry experts such as Bob Costello and Tim Denoyer are analyzing the ongoing challenges and potential recovery prospects. Bob Costello, the Chief Economist at the American Trucking Associations (ATA), recently stated, “The good news is that truck freight volumes had a nice end to the summer.” However, he tempered this optimism by warning against expecting a strong rebound in the freight market, citing prevailing economic difficulties, including uncertainties related to inflation and tariffs. He observed that in October 2025, there was a notable 2.1% drop in tonnage, marking the weakest performance since January 2024.

On the other hand, Tim Denoyer, from ACT Research, has similarly characterized the market outlook as cautious. He pointed out that “extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year,” indicating a temporary relief in pressure but acknowledging the persistent challenges posed by limited freight demand and overcapacity. Additionally, Denoyer highlighted the struggles of fleets, leading to constrained investments and generationally low public truckload margins.

Both experts anticipate that the recovery of the trucking market will be slow, with Denoyer mentioning that despite minor improvements in freight volumes, it might take considerable time to see significant changes in rate structures owing to inflation and changing supply dynamics. Their combined insights reveal a cautious but hopeful perspective on the trucking industry’s future, emphasizing the need for vigilance and strategic planning among stakeholders as they navigate these turbulent times.

Overall, while there are glimmers of positive trends, such as marginal increases in volume, the overarching sentiment remains one of caution regarding the sustainability and timing of a potential recovery in the trucking industry.

Conclusion

In summarizing the current state of the trucking industry in Canada and the U.S., it is evident that significant disparities exist between the two markets. The Canadian trucking landscape continues to experience notable challenges, as illustrated by a 40% year-over-year decline in load postings and an increasing truck-to-load ratio that has spiked to 4.20 trucks for every load. This oversupply situation places substantial pressure on freight rates and reveals a market characterized by competition and inefficiency.

Conversely, the U.S. trucking market has shown some resilience with a 0.9% increase in for-hire truck tonnage in August 2025, marking a favorable uptick in an otherwise cautious economic climate. Though not immune to challenges, such as inflation and ongoing tariff concerns, this slight improvement highlights a potential recovery trajectory that stakeholders may find encouraging.

Looking ahead, the future of the trucking industry in North America will likely hinge on how effectively businesses respond to these divergent trends. For Canadian carriers, adapting to the excess capacity and dwindling demand for freight services will be crucial. This could entail diversifying service offerings or exploring dedicated freight solutions to maintain viability. Meanwhile, U.S. trucking companies may focus on optimizing operations and managing costs to capitalise on the mild recovery in freight volumes, while remaining vigilant to external economic pressures that could disrupt progress.

Overall, stakeholders in both regions will require resilience, strategic planning, and ongoing adaptation to navigate the unpredictable landscape of the trucking industry, ensuring they are positioned to thrive amid challenges and capitalize on opportunities as they arise.

A futuristic truck at a modern logistics hub symbolizing progress and innovation in the trucking industry

Freight Demand Forecasts for the U.S. and Canadian Markets

As we look ahead to the final months of 2025, forecasts for freight demand in both the U.S. and Canadian trucking markets suggest a complex interplay of factors that could shape market dynamics.

U.S. Freight Demand Forecast

Canadian Freight Demand Forecast

Key Trends in Freight Demand Forecasts

U.S. trucking industry expects a decline in freight volumes in Q4 2025 due to tariff pressures.
Canadian market projected to face reduced freight volumes and intensifying competition.
Overall, weak demand will likely persist in both markets influencing profitability.
Adjusted capacity and softening volumes may complicate profit margins for U.S. carriers.

Urgent Economic Shifts: Impacts on Canadian and US Trucking Markets You Can’t Ignore

Canadian Trucking Market Analysis

U.S. Trucking Market Trends as of August 2025

Freight Demand Forecasts for the U.S. and Canadian Markets

U.S. Freight Demand Forecast

Canadian Freight Demand Forecast

Summary of Expert Predictions

Further Reading

Summary of Expert Quotes and Insights

Conclusion

Freight Demand Forecasts for the U.S. and Canadian Markets

U.S. Freight Demand Forecast

Canadian Freight Demand Forecast

Key Trends in Freight Demand Forecasts

Summary of Expert Predictions

Further Reading